Sable and her Dolls [5th in APAC Online Continentals]

It started with a thesis:

Dolls benefit Sable more than it benefit MuslihaT, so we should be running dolls in Sable if we think dolls are good enough to run in MuslihaT.

First, do dolls benefit Sable more than they benefit MuslihaT?

The only reason dolls are beneficial for MuslihaT over regular breaker is that instead of running 6 breakers and 2 boomerangs, you get to run 8 breakers instead (6 dolls and marjanah and revolver), essentially improving your hit rate by 2 cards (6%). For Sable, drawing 2 dolls "unlocks" every central server for Sable, almost unconditionally, whereas drawing 2 regular breakers may or may not allow you to run anything, because you might fear saisentan or stavka and you didn't draw into revolver, or you might fear Maskirovka if you didn't draw Curupira, or you might fear Whitespace (WS is cracked now if you didn't know) if you didn't draw Shibboleth. In this way, dolls function very similarly to Boomerang for Sable, except they're permanent. (Nearly) unconditionally unlocking 2, sometimes 3 servers for her mark to hit improves her ID efficiency by a significant amount, compared to a mere 6% hitrate for MuslihaT.

So, are dolls worth running over reg breakers?

Facechecking

As mentioned, you only require 2 dolls drawn to be able to run anything, when reg breakers may require 2 specific breakers to be comfortable running face down ice, depending on the corp. This of course depends on meta and playstyle. You may prefer a playstyle that face checks ice a lot, and this gives you information on the ice you need to break and gives you more confidence that you have the correct ice breaker. But in the current meta, ice have bad face check. We're seeing a lot of Saisentan, Phoneutria, Lamplighter, Whitespace (see Tuno's ob), Mestnichestvo, Maskirovka, all horrible face checks. We're in a meta where tempo matters a whole lot, losing 3 credits in the early game or allowing the corp to gain 2 credits or egg counters is game losing. All this to say, as face checking gets worse, reg breakers get worse and dolls get better because you can simply focus on drawing and setting up until you find 2 dolls.

Cost

2 dolls costs 3 credits. 2 reg breakers costs 5+ credits (say, revolver + curupira). 3 dolls cost 3 credits. 3 breakers cost 6-9 credits (curupira + shib/unity + revolver/carmen/echelon). This doesn't even count the amount of boomerangs you will be installing.

Cezves and Cupellation

3 breakers = 3 MU. Dolls = 2 MU. 1 extra MU is a world of difference for criminal.

Why have 4 credits for your central runs when you can have 6! (this actually doesn't really matter that much until we get to the nebula matchup which we will talk about later).

Pop quiz, why aren't crims running cupellation outside of Zahya? It's an excellent tech card against au co, ob (hostile architecture especially, but also svyatogor), and nebula (you only get 1 or 2 runs against HQ, you will want to see 5 cards, also you can cup petty cash). Ding ding ding! It's MU! Cup is either a dead card in the late game because you have your full 5 MU rig out and you don't want to trade out your cezve for a program that is only situationally useful, or it is a really clunky card in the mid game where you haven't drawn hermes and you need to start putting down breakers and cezves asap, but there's just a cup sitting on board with a phat on it and you can't run HQ because there's a scary unrezzed ice. When criminal have an extra flex MU it allows Cup to be so much less clunky and is still installable in the late game (you can trade out your 3rd cezve for it it's fine).

Umm, dolls are just good at breaking ice?

It's crazy that we're in a meta that we'd rather play Corroder again, but we are. Let's shout out some common break maths:

Maskirovka: 3 (dolls) vs 4 (curupira). Yes yes, curupira counters, the game's going to end before you encounter a maskirovka 4 times in a game.

Scatter Field, Mestnichestvo: 4 (dolls) vs 4-6 (shibboleth) 3-5 (unity)

Saisentan, Phoneutria: 2-3 (dolls) vs 2 + 2/3 bullets (revolver), 2-3 (carmen)

Drafter, Bumi: 3 (dolls) vs 2 + 2 bullets (revolver), 4 (carmen ew), 2-5 (echelon)

Winchester: 5 (dolls) vs 2 + 3 bullets (revolver), 5 (carmen), 6 (echelon)

Biawak: 7 (dolls) vs 4 + 3 bullets (revolver), 7 (carmen), 6-9 (echelon)

As you can see, dolls are either the same or better at breaking ice than most breakers. More importantly, dolls are consistent and unconditional, while other breakers require another one or two breakers for them to make sense (echelon, unity), or threat < 4 (shibboleth), or they run out (revolver).

They're cute

This one is pretty obvious. They have 6 flavor texts! That totally beats out 3 flavor texts in a full breaker suite. I'd play dolls for this reason alone.

Downsides

You can only break a limited amount of ice per turn - This matters way less than you think. Ob and Au co does not run enough ice that you will need more than 2 hosted dolls. Nebula ice are quite porous and you can simply pay through them or take tags on your very last turn where you're running to see 5 in HQ (with cup and twinning) and 3 on RND (with twinning).

Semak-samun - This sucks, but this is what Marjanah is for. The good news is Semak doesn't really do anything on face check and pinhole takes care of the rest. You can tank through the damage if you really need to. Not a huge deal. If the Au co triple semak, well, just chill out and pinhole the phat and cohort and dig for twinning.

Hammer - The real reason not to run dolls. If everyone is on Hammer you should stop playing dolls. But Hammer is rare, mostly seen in Nuvem, and they're don't seem to be as meta as Ob is. Also is usually a 1 of. Try to sus out the Hammer by running before you put down hermes or twinning, if you find it the worst that will happen is that you take a tag. Then you now know what server to avoid. Or just dig for revolver.

SDS Drone Deployment - This card scares the shit out of me. Do your best to setup as fast as possible to remote lock the corp and contest every IAA. Pinhole any suspected Holo mans and don't let them have a hearts and mind NA (you can sus this out by seeing if there's a random advance on an ice and a cybersand on board). Cup is good here, be prepared for an explosive HQ run to take Slashes and bounce their agenda. Twinning is good here but be careful of Above the Law. SDS is the only reason i'm on 6 dolls instead of 5, so i can install only 3 and have 3 backup.

Stavka + Hafrún - If you think ob is on this, never run any face down ice if they have a rezzed 3 cost and pinhole any face down cards that's been sitting around for a while before running, it's probably a mavirus. If all else fails, dig for Revolver before running. You play around this the exact same way as you would if you're running reg breakers, but you lose a lot harder if you lose your Dolls.

Dolls matchups

Nebula - Actually this matchup specifically is why I picked dolls over reg breakers for APAC. I expected quite a few Nebula and I was correct. Nebula has no tech vs dolls. The emerging hand trap kill Nebula runs very little ice, so it cannot punish your doll count. Having an extra MU for cup in your final rig is instrumental. Alternately there are games where Corp cannot score false leads, in these games you are able to put down 3 cezves and run their stuffs for free every turn and they cannot win. Ditch your revolvers and marjanah, you won't need it.

Ob - Despite my ramblings about SDS and Stavka, dolls are great into the Ob matchup. I was anticipating a lot of Tuno Ob or other Measured Ob which will run Basalt over SDS. Dolls allow you to easily play your run events without fear of a punishing face check (Maskirovka or Whitespace) which will let you play Bravado with no fear or allowing you to run marked servers with unrezzed ice without too much fears.

Au co - Dolls unlock your Bravados. Bravados are excellent at sussing out Semaks. Just use it on a random ice and if it's a Semak just bounce out. Your opponent lost 3 credits and you gained 3 and critical information. You only need 2 dolls here to be able to run everything because Au co will literally never double ice anything ever. Dolls really discourages any Regenesis plays from the corp because they know you have no fear. You can run the regenesis, oh that's a semak? ok run Archives, preferrably with Airblades down. I wouldn't really bother with Revolver in this matchup, it's never really better than dolls.